The summer of 2003 brought a very severe drought across southern Europe. Very high temperatures were recorded, sometimes exceeding the seasonal average by 8 to 10 degrees.
This unusual heat wave led to increased death rates, and the death of thousands of people across Europe. In September the situation changed radically, and saw major floods in south and central Italy, in France and in Spain.
These processes have raised interest in climatic change amongst the general public, but often there is no global vision of the changes that are happening, beyond the usual remarks about ice melting at the poles or the hole in the Ozone layer.
Undoubtedly, the attitude of government and the ruling class in most countries contributes to this. After thirty years of climatic conferences, the one held in Kyoto in 1997 finally proposed to reduce emissions of Carbon dioxide (generated by the use of fossil fuels), of methane (deriving from rubbish dumps and livestock rearing), of nitrous oxide (deriving from agriculture and chemical production) and of three fluoride compounds used in industry. The Kyoto Protocol was binding on industrialised countries, requiring them to reduce global emissions by 5.2% by 2012, as compared to 1990 levels. Six years have passed since the signing of this document and, with a few exceptions, most countries have increased their emissions.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal gas responsible for the greenhouse effect, a beneficial effect that prevents the sharp temperature variations that can be seen on the moon or on Mars, which would make life on earth impossible. But this positive effect can be transformed into its opposite when heating provokes climatic changes with unpredictable consequences.
Most counties have not yet approved the Kyoto Protocol. In particular, the United States has refused to do so. If the United States is not included and the objectives of other countries don't change, the target of reducing emissions by 5.2% is automatically reduced to 3.8%! In order to stabilise greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, the balance between what is produced and what is absorbed by the natural systems should equal zero. That is to say that the average rate of global emissions has to equal the average rate of global absorption.
Equilibrium could only be reached if global emissions where immediately reduced by between 50 and 60 percent. If this reduction is not carried through now but in 30 or 50 years time, cuts will have to equal 80% of global emissions. It is clear that the 5% reduction before 2012 envisaged by the Kyoto protocol is totally inadequate.
At present, there is insufficient scientific knowledge to predict climatic evolution over the next 20 to 30 years with any certainty, much less the rest of the 21st century. However, some data is unquestionable, and undoubtedly worrying.
Greenhouse gases
The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous oxide (N2O) have grown significantly since 1750-1800, the beginning of the industrial revolution. Specifically, CO2 has increased from around 280 to nearly 370 ppmv (parts per million in volume), CH4 from 700 to around 1750 ppbv (parts per billion in volume), and N2O from 275 to around 315 ppbv. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which did not exist until the middle of the twentieth century, have grown so rapidly in the last 50 years that they not only constitute a menace to the natural greenhouse effect, but also to the integrity of the stratospheric Ozone layer, which has actually been destroyed over the Atlantic. Many greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years and will influence our climate for centuries.
Studies of the polar ice caps tell us that the present level of Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is the highest in the last 420,000 years. Most probably, though this is still to be verified, it is the highest in the last 20 million years. The rapid rate of increase of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, at 32% over 250 years, of which as much as 8% has occurred in the last 20, is certainly the highest in the last 20 thousand years.
The destruction of woods and forests has increased at an incredible pace, especially in the tropical areas. Through the process of photosynthesis, woods and forests absorb and transform Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and constitute the principal means of absorption and recycling of atmospheric Carbon dioxide. It has been calculated that over recent years an area the size of Switzerland has been deforested every year.
The pace of the transformation of the world's surface by mankind is growing rapidly, due to demographic growth and to economic and industrial development. This provokes changes in the global climatic energy balance. Moreover, the growing pace of extensive and intensive urbanisation, especially in Asia, South America and Africa, the intensive use of soil resources for agriculture, land and sea pollution, and other human activities over the last century have modified both the planet's capacity to absorb solar energy and its capacity to reflect solar radiation towards space.
Recent studies on the climatic system have highlighted how in the last few decades our planet's climate has suffered transformations that could lead to profound and irreversible changes in both the environment and human society in the coming 50 to100 years, if present socio-economic trends and the use of natural resources are not modified.
The following are the changes identified in the most recent research by IPCC (the branch of the United Nations that studies climatic changes), and represent current scientific knowledge.
Global temperature changes
The average global temperature of our planet has risen between 0.4 and 0.8°C since 1800. If we analyse minimum and maximum temperature variation in closer detail (daily, monthly or annually) it can be shown that our planet's global warming is not so much due to variations in maximum temperatures, but to the rise in minimum temperatures, which have increased twice as quickly.
Regarding polar ice, no clear relationship can be shown between the rise in global temperatures and the ice melting, at least since 1970, from when reliable data has been available. Existing data shows that the Antarctic ice cap has remained relatively stable and has recently shown a tendency to expand. On the other hand, the Arctic ice cap has undergone a certain reduction over recent decades.
As far as glaciers at medium latitudes are concerned, the tendency has been towards a reduction both in volume and area. This is particularly evident in alpine glaciers and medium/low latitude mountain range glaciers in the northern hemisphere. At the present pace, alpine glaciers could disappear before the end of the century.
Precipitation, drought and extreme meteorological events
Looking at total annual precipitation, it is clear that instances of intense precipitation are increasing, particularly in the northern hemisphere and in medium/low latitude regions. In the southern hemisphere however, no significant variations have been registered. The rise in drought phenomena is particularly evident in the Sahel region south of the Sahara, where it has worsened significantly since 1970, in southern Africa and in eastern Asia. Increases in the frequency of droughts have also taken place in adjacent areas, such as southern Europe (Spain, southern Italy, Greece, Turkey) and the southern part of the United States.
It is necessary to distinguish between extreme precipitation (severe flooding), extreme temperatures (both hot and cold) and storms (cyclones, tornadoes, etc.). As far as extreme precipitations are concerned, IPCC studies show that in the regions where total annual precipitation is increasing, so is severe flooding. In these areas rainfall generally tends to be of stronger intensity and shorter duration. In eastern Asian regions, although total annual precipitation is decreasing, extreme precipitation events and flooding are on the increase.
As far as extreme temperatures are concerned, present data shows a decrease in the frequency of the lowest temperatures.
Storms must be considered separately. Globally, it is not clear if there has been an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones (and of associated storms: hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes, etc.) or in the frequency of extra-tropical cyclones. However, the damage they cause seems to be increasing. So even if the frequency hasn't changed, it appears that the storms have increased in intensity and violence.
Climatic change hypotheses
Even if we had a perfect model for climate prediction the outlook for the future would in any case always depend on population growth hypotheses, resource exploitation and generally on the socio-economic development of the world. It is possible to set out scenarios based on different development hypotheses. In this context, it can be assumed that in the period 1999 to 2100, the average global temperature of our planet could increase by a minimum of 1.4°C (in the most optimistic scenario) to a maximum of 5.8°C (in the most negative) due to human activity.
The water cycle, a good simulation of which has not yet been achieved, and the terrestrial water systems, which are subject to fluctuation, can cause errors in these evaluations. At a global level these mistakes can be considered relatively small but at a sub-continental or local level they can lead to an exaggeration or an under-evaluation of heating phenomena.
If we analyse future projections based on the hypothesis of an increase of 1% per year, the atmospheric concentration of Carbon dioxide, which is more or less the present rate of growth, it can be deduced that in about 70 years time, when Carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration will be twice the present level, the average temperature of the planet will have increased by approximately 2°C. Even if the concentration does not change the temperature will continue to increase. In fact, the temperature will increase by roughly 1.5°C over the next 70-100 years and would reach a level approximately 3.5°C higher than at present between 2140 and 2170. In other words there is a delay between the stabilisation of the atmospheric concentration of Carbon dioxide and the stabilisation of temperature rise. If the rise in Carbon dioxide concentration did not stop but increased to four times the present level, the temperature increase would also continue, reaching +3.5°C in 2100 and approximately +5.5°C in 2150. It would stabilise at around +7°C after 2200.
There is no doubt that increases in temperature corresponding to increases in Carbon dioxide concentration take place with a delay of decades or even centuries, according to the rate of growth of atmospheric Carbon dioxide. In the case of a rate of growth of 1% per year, the delay can be calculated as 70-100 years.
Temperature and precipitation increase
Evaluation of precipitation regime changes, being a very variable phenomenon, has to be considered by time average, over decades or several decades grouped together, along with space average. Global average precipitation, considered over twenty year periods, will tend to grow, reaching a 2.4% increase by 2060-2080. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will double over the same period.
This increase will be greater in medium and high latitudes and less in low latitudes, where there will be decreases. Extreme precipitation intensity will tend to grow at a faster pace with the increase of average global precipitation, and the probability of extreme phenomena will also tend to increase.
Sea level increase
Future projections indicate that global sea levels will increase from a minimum of approximately 20cm to a maximum of approximately 50cm by the year 2090. In fact, the maximum figure could reach 75cm by the year 2100 if the average global temperature increases by more than 2°C.
Different factors contribute to the increase in the sea level, including the thermal expansion of oceans, the melting of medium and lower latitude glaciers and the melting of polar ice caps.
Thermal expansion of oceans is the main cause of the increase in the sea level. Sea level increase differs across different regions of the globe. In the Mediterranean, this increase should be limited to between 20 and 30cm by the year 2090. However, before the end of this century a flood a metre high could submerge large parts of New York, including all of the underground network and the three main airports. The OECD calculates that the damage would cost $970 billion. The highly populated fluvial deltas of Bangladesh, China, Egypt and Nigeria are all under sea level and at risk of flooding. The costs would be immeasurable.
On this premise, the following considerations on the application of the Kyoto Protocol have been put forward by IPCC:
1) As global emissions of Carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, are presently around double the level of the planet's natural absorption capacity, the non-absorbed excess tends to remain in the atmosphere for around 70-100 years on average, and will tend to accumulate. Therefore, IPCC considers that there must be an immediate reduction of Carbon dioxide emissions of at least 50%, or more than 50% if past accumulation is taken into account, in order to regain the natural equilibrium.
2) The stabilisation of Carbon dioxide emissions at present levels, or at 1990 levels as is being discussed in international negotiations, will not lead to Carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration stabilisation but, given the disequilibrium between global emissions and global absorption, to its continuing growth. The rate will depend upon the atmospheric accumulation rate and upon average carbon dioxide life (approximately one hundred years). On the other hand, the stabilisation of other greenhouse gas emissions such as methane and nitrous oxide will lead to the stabilisation of these gas concentrations in the atmosphere, but only after some decades.
3) After the stabilisation of the atmospheric concentration of Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the temperature will still continue to increase, only stabilising after a delay of 70 years or more. So presently we can slow down possible future climatic changes due to anthropic causes, but not eliminate them.
The impact of climatic change in Europe and the Mediterranean
In terms of the environmental impact of climate change on Europe, even in the hypothetical case of a halt in world population growth and of a halt in socio-economic development, with zero economic growth in the industrialised countries, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will still continue to increase. This would be the case as the quality of living conditions in the developing countries must improve, this being their right. At present eighty per cent of the world population lives in these countries. This process could only be cut across if a technological revolution were to reduce to a minimum the emission of these gases.
The risk of flooding will tend to increase, as will the risk that water supplies will become scarce, particularly in south Europe and the Mediterranean area. Climate changes will tend to accentuate differences between northern and southern Europe, in that there will be too much water in the north and not enough in the south.
Soil quality will tend to deteriorate throughout Europe. In the north the deterioration could be largely due to increased soil erosion caused by higher rainfall and greater flood risks. In the south on the other hand, the deterioration could be provoked by soil degeneration, caused by erosion and nutrient loss due to the lower precipitation and increased drought risks.
The increase in average temperature and the increase of concentrations of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can alter the equilibrium of the natural ecosystems, even leading to changes in the landscape. Typically Mediterranean ecosystems and vegetation will tend to appear in central Europe, as the coniferous forests and typical boreal (northern) forests of medium latitudes start to take the place of the tundra presently found at the higher European latitudes. In the Mediterranean area, forest fires will tend to increase, as will the risk of losing present ecosystems and biodiversity altogether. The consequences of these changes will fall also on fauna, especially migratory fauna.
Agriculture. The growth of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will tend to increase agricultural productivity in northern and central Europe. In southern Europe on the other hand, the decrease in water availability and the temperature increase is likely to have the opposite effect. On the whole, Europe will not suffer significant changes in overall agricultural productivity, but only a different distribution. In fact, the effect on northern Europe would be positive, and would balance overall the negative effects on Southern Europe.
Extreme events. The likely increase in the frequency of extreme meteorological events will lead to an increase in the economic and social damage caused to residential and productive structures and infrastructures. Temperature increase will also tend to modify people's use of their free time. In particular it will tend to stimulate tourist and open-air activities in northern Europe and to decrease them in southern Europe. In the Mediterranean area more frequent heat waves and droughts, together with lower water availability, could modify present tourist habits concentrated in the summer period. Lower snowfall and the progressive shrinking of glaciers could modify and reduce alpine winter tourism. Alpine glaciers could disappear altogether before the end of this century if the present tempo of events is maintained.
Marine-coastal environment. The increase in sea levels will endanger the European Mediterranean coastal zones. The biggest problems will be the loss of wet areas at the river deltas, the invasion of salt water into coastal freshwater beds with consequences on agriculture and on the availability of drinking water, and the increase in coastal erosion. In northern Europe the most exposed coastal areas are those of the Baltic, Poland in particular.
What are the alternatives?
According to recent research by ENEA (the Italian board for research into new sources of energy): "…the only realistic option for drastically reducing emissions and minimising the negative impact of climatic changes would be a great common effort at national and international level in scientific, technological and machinery research and development, capable of generating an energy 'revolution' that will take man from a socio-economic system based almost exclusively on fossil fuels and the massive use of natural resources, as is the case today, to a socio-economic and development system independent (or almost independent) of fossil fuels and the use of natural resources.
"According to international recommendations, the main areas of scientific activity should concern:
"a) climatic research and global observation (precise climatic analyses and forecasting, and detailed definition of impacts and risks);
"b) new and unexplored primary energy sources (sources without greenhouse gas emission);
"c) new power sources and secondary sources (in addition to hydrogen and other power sources not containing carbon, it seems that there could be good possibilities for Boron and Aluminium);
"d) new ways of utilising both traditional and new power sources (reduction of carbon intensity in the production and use of energy)
"e) new systems and/or technologies to reduce global energy intensity (reduce the present relation between energy development and consumption)."
Comparing the above proposals with international agreements that have been reached so far we can see that the governments and the ruling classes are playing with fire, allowing the accumulation of substances that are already affecting the climate dramatically, and will have irreversible consequences for 70-100 years after their emission into the atmosphere. These same governments refuse to listen to the warnings from the scientific community, they maintain a low commitment to research and also refuse to implement the policies that are needed to begin to reverse pollution, claiming that they are too expensive and would put their economies at risk.
Present levels of pollution ‑ produced in the context of a world which has more than one third of its population living in extreme poverty and which is situated outside the industrialised economies ‑ are destined to grow exponentially if today's relationship between energy consumption and economic development is not radically transformed. But to make this possible it is necessary to radically transform the dominant economic system. Capitalism is based on the quest for maximum profit with the minimum possible investment. It is incapable of creating the conditions for such an epic undertaking, which would require massive levels of investment and scientific research inspired not by company profits but by the satisfaction of the needs of humanity, not only of the present generation but also those of the future.
Bush's refusal to accept the Kyoto protocols on the grounds that they would threaten the US economy, while he spends $4 billion per month on the occupation of Iraq, is a clear demonstration of how in the present world disorder it is impossible to envisage and study alternatives in the fields of energy, production of goods, transport, consumption and leisure, which would be necessary to avoid the expected catastrophe.
It must be clear to all that the extent of the problem is such that partial measures such as the reduction of emissions proposed in Kyoto, the recycling of waste and the building of a few parks here and there are useful but absolutely insufficient.
For the first time in history humanity has the means to destroy the planet that witnessed its birth and its development. But these same means, if taken out of the hands of the capitalist minority and used in the context of a workers' democracy, without wasting any human or material resources, could equally be sued to transform this planet into a plush garden where hunger, wars and misery would be eradicated for ever. The big majority of the population, which has not had the chance to have a say in the decisions that have brought us to the present situation, must be made conscious of what is at stake.