The following draft document was discussed at the World Congress of the International Marxist Tendency in July 2016. The main aim of the document is to define the main economic, social and political trends in the world today and to develop a perspective for the class struggle in the next period. The document was originally drafted in October 2015. [You can read the final version of the document, which was passed at the congress here as well as a special resolution passed on the question of Brexit here - ed.]

Today we publish the fourth part of the IMT’s analysis of the world situation.This part deals with the ongoing revolutions in Latin America and the Middle East, the movements in Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, Egypt and Iran, as well as world relations and the decline of US imperialism. [part one]

The crisis of the BRICS is organically related to the slowdown in China. The emergence of China, which was seen by some—even some who called themselves “Marxists—as a guarantee of the future of world capitalism, has only served to sharpen all the contradictions. For a period, the explosive growth of the Chinese economy provided oxygen to world capitalism. Now this colossal advantage turns out to be a colossal problem. The massive investment in Chinese industry was bound to express itself as a mass of cheap commodities, which had to find a market outside China. For global manufacturers, the avalanche of cheap Chinese exports over the past decade has exacerbated the crisis of overproduction.

Today we publish the second part of the IMT’s analysis of the world situation. This is a draft document that is the basis of a discussion within the Tendency and which will be voted on with possible amendments at this year’s world congress of the IMT.

Below we publish the IMT’s analysis of the world situation. This document was discussed and passed at the IMT World Congress 2014. The congress also passed a series of amendmends to clarify certain aspects of the situation - none of these however, altered the fundamental points of the document. The amendments have been inserted in the present version of the document.

that tendency which is growing up together with the revolution, which is able to foresee its own tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, which is setting itself clear goals and knows how to achieve them.” (Trotsky, On the Policy of the KAPD, Speech Delivered at the Session of the ECCI, November 24, 1920)

At this moment in time, there is no basis in any country of Europe for a Bonapartist or fascist solution. The fascist organizations today are mostly small sects without mass influence. Even the attack in Norway was not an expression of strength, but of weakness. Terrorism is always ultimately an expression of weakness and an inability to reach the masses. [part 1]

Lenin said that politics is concentrated economics. For Marxists the importance of economics is the effects it has on the class struggle. In the Second World Congress of the Communist International, Trotsky pointed out that every measure the bourgeois take to deal with the crisis will intensify the class struggle. [part 1]

In the last year and a half the Arab revolution and the stormy events in Europe have thrust themselves to the forefront. The Latin American revolution, by contrast, appears to be unfolding at a slower pace than previously. Such developments are inevitable, reflecting the combined and uneven character of the process of the world revolution. But there are also important developments in Latin America, with some decisive events being prepared in the coming months. [part 1]

The revolutionary movement of the Arab masses naturally had a large impact in sub-Saharan Africa, stirring up the masses that for decades have been forced to live in the most desperate conditions. Immediately after the beginning of the Arab Spring, eruptions of mass discontent were seen in many sub-Saharan countries, especially in Burkina Faso, Senegal, Malawi, Zambia and Swaziland, but minor eruptions occurred in all African countries, and in general the level of tension between the masses and their rulers has significantly increased. [part 1]

Wherever the capitalists look they can find no solution. The illusion that Asia could save them is fast evaporating. They are waking up to the fact that Asia, despite its colossal productive potential, cannot make up for the loss of demand and production in Europe and the USA. This is highlighted by the case of Japan, which has gone from being a model of growth to a country plagued by long-term stagnation, rising unemployment and growing social contradictions. [part 1]

When Greece goes, the question is immediately posed of the contagion spreading to other countries. Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy will fall like dominoes. Banks will collapse, starting with the Greek and Cypriot banks, and then proceeding to the UK and U.S. financial system, both of which are unsound. An economic collapse in Europe would send a Tsunami racing across the Atlantic, putting pressure on the dollar and threatening to undermine the unstable financial set-up in the USA. [part 1]

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