As thousands reach Islamabad with high expectations of change, the masses at large are bewildered, indifferent and sceptical about all the streaks of the political elite. Speculations of deals brokered by the military chief, General Raheel Sharif, are rife. Pakistan is once again immersed in instability and turbulence.
The unfortunate inhabitants of Pakistan have never been more apprehensive about their future as they were on this Independence Day. The current turmoil brings sharply into focus the internal conflicts and divisions of the ruling class at the top and the crisis of leadership of the working masses at the bottom.
The 'azaadi (independence) march' led by Imran Khan, a former playboy cricketer turned demagogue right-wing politician, and the 'revolution march' led by Mullah Tahirul Qadri, blending his religious obscurantism with reformist sloganeering, are taking place at separate venues in Islamabad. The proclaimed aim is to bring down the Sharif government. The Sharif brothers, in their desperation to hang on to power, panicked initially by banning marches and blocking all entrances to Lahore and Islamabad with shipping containers. The so-called ‘heavy mandate’ of the PML-N in the May 2013 elections has proved to be hollow and the Sharifs are struggling to remain in government.
The much flaunted democracy and parliament are rapidly losing credibility as status quo parties, especially the PPP, are unashamedly quick to come to the assistance and rescue of the oppressive set up. The Sharifs have already made significant concessions but all to no avail as they have been spurned by Khan and Qadri. Nawaz Sharif’s plan B is to portray an allusion of him being close to the army, particularly General Raheel Sharif. He has already handed over the capital to the infamous Brigade 111.
Despite his landslide victory, Sharif never looked comfortable in power. The ruling elites in Pakistan and in most ex-colonial capitalist countries are now faced with a crisis of political leadership at the top. Historically, capitalism and imperialism have been able to perpetuate their exploitation and repression with different forms of political superstructure such as democratic or semi-democratic setups, populist reformist regimes, direct military dictatorships, etc. However, with the onset of the slump of the mid-1970s, the economic and social conditions in the ex-colonial countries have rapidly deteriorated, leading to rising revolts and repression to control the masses.
Where this did not succeed, they leaned on the leftist populist leaders to preserve their system and profits. This was the case in the early 1970s in Pakistan when the state was on the verge of disintegration and power was handed over to the PPP and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The same process took place in 1988 with the demise of General Zia and when Musharraf outlived his usefulness to imperialism. In all cases, the PPP ended up preserving the capitalist system. The most glaring endemic crisis of the Pakistani ruling class, reactionary and rotten to the core, is its disastrous failure to create a modern nation and a functional democratic structure.
Khan is a right-wing politician with religious and national chauvinism at the core of his ideological bearings. Qadri is an impostor mixing religious mysticism and demagogic sloganeering including references to poverty, deprivation and welfare, but this is more rhetorical than any serious programme. Both are staunch supporters of free market economics, foreign investment and neoliberal capitalism and, hypothetically speaking, if they ever came into power, they would be steered by the military, imperialism, and financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.
Qadri and Khan both have inflated egos and it looks like they are already at odds. They will inevitably clash more in the future. The only thing they have in common is their political base, predominantly amongst the petty bourgeoisie, a class faced with a financial crunch and rapidly falling living standards, characteristically swinging erratically from revolutionary outburst to reactionary binge.
These long marches can neither achieve real independence nor revolution. With the huge vacuum of a left revolutionary leadership, the petty bourgeoisie has landed in the lap of reaction. The system has been badly shaken and Sharif looks rattled. But the outcome of all these events is far from clear. In all probability, it will result in a classic compromise, providing an opportunity to all the main players to come out with some dignity. We have an exciting few days ahead of us. It is difficult to predict whether the events unfolding will remain peaceful or violent, forcing the army to step in. However, a full-scale military putsch, though possible, seems unlikely.
We have witnessed the monumental blunders the generals have made in the past when they took power directly. The army is reluctant to seize power and rule directly as it lacks the cohesion and confidence to embark upon such an audacious act with a crumbling economy and a society torn apart by conflict and conflagration. They are much better off asserting their power from behind the scenes and controlling foreign and domestic crucial policies in a civilian setup. They are too busy expanding their policy of ‘strategic depth’ after the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. There is no disagreement on the direction of the economic policy, particularly on the mass sell-off of national assets, and they are happy with higher spending on the military under democratic regimes.
Paradoxically, this is an excellent opportunity for the army to act as a ringmaster; the army has an opportunity to weaken further a beleaguered prime minister. The areas where Sharif and the army have already fought bruising battles are construction contracts, especially in Balochistan, the country’s largest private television station and Musharraf’s trial for treason. It is no secret that the army wants him released so that he can go back to self-imposed exile in London.
The PPP leaders have been pathetic in these unfolding events. They have sent Rehman Malik and other discredited leaders to defend the right-wing PML-N regime. Zardari has become the Godfather of the odious theory of reconciliation. The writing on the wall is that today’s PPP has abandoned the masses to the mercy of this cruel system. The PPP bosses have unashamedly declared this rotten capitalism their destiny.
However, the working classes are not going to accept such a disaster as their destined fate. The class conflict is very much present and there is a seething revulsion and hatred against the ruling classes, their politicians, state and system. This simmering lava is bound to erupt. On a revolutionary path the workers will not have to embark upon long marches to Islamabad. They will take the levers of industry and the economy that runs on their labour and besiege the system through their role in the economy and society. They can defeat the state by bringing society to a halt, opening up the path to a revolutionary transformation on a socialist basis. This happened in Pakistan during the revolution of 1968-69. That marvellous revolution needs to be redeemed by the generation of the new millennium.
First published: Daily Time, Pakistan