India and Pakistan: Shadows of yet another war

As the war in Afghanistan is far from over, Pakistan's eastern border with India is in the grip of new war hysteria. The massive deployment of troops, the cross border exchange of fire and the fleeing of the inhabitants of border villages are posing the threat of yet another war between the two countries. If this conflict erupts into a full-scale war it would be the fourth major military clash between India and Pakistan in a short span of 54 years of their postcolonial existence.

The smoke of American devastation still rises behind the snow-capped peaks of the White Mountain (Koh-e-Safaid) Range on Pakistan's Western border. As the war in Afghanistan is far from over, Pakistan's eastern border with India is in the grip of new war hysteria. The massive deployment of troops, the cross border exchange of fire and the fleeing of the inhabitants of border villages are posing the threat of yet another war between the two countries. If this conflict erupts into a full-scale war it would be the fourth major military clash between India and Pakistan in a short span of 54 years of their postcolonial existence.

Within months of their creation India and Pakistan went to war over Kashmir in 1948. The second war came in September 1965, again on Kashmir. The third war erupted in December 1971 in East Pakistan [now Bangladesh], but it soon spilled over to the Western front and in Kashmir. This war led to the break up of Pakistan with East Pakistan becoming Bangladesh. Pakistan faced a humiliating defeat and 90,000 Pakistani troops became prisoners of war in India.

This war came in the aftermath of a lost revolution in Pakistan. In 1968-69 the Pakistani students, workers and peasants had virtually taken power in their hands through a massive revolutionary movement. The lack of a Bolshevik Party and a Marxist leadership resulted in the derailment of the revolution. In these conditions of social unrest, the bourgeoisie went to war to whip up national chauvinism in an attempt to divert attention away from the social issues and to destroy the class struggle, which had erupted with such ferocious intensity.

But these wars of the past were short lived and the weaponry at that stage was relatively primitive. Still, these wars caused massive devastation and hundreds of thousands of civilian causalities. Yet these wars failed to resolve the Kashmir dispute.

Even the so-called period of peace has been one of constant tension and strained relations between the two neighbours. There have been constant skirmishes across the border. The intelligence agencies, the ISI of Pakistan and the RAW of India, have been carrying out acts of terrorism and sabotage within each other's countries to destabilize the situation and keep the peoples of the subcontinent under strain and stress by whipping up hatred, chauvinism and jingoistic moods in society. All this was, and is, being done to perpetuate the rule of a decaying capitalist elite incapable of establishing domestic stability.

The rising of tension in the recent days had been anticipated after the September 11 events. The reactionary BJP regime in India had failed to curb and suppress the movement in Kashmir, just as all the others had done in the past. They had deployed more than 600,000 troops and had still failed to stop the insurgency in Kashmir.

Like most of the regimes around the world the crisis-ridden regime in India also joined the "anti terrorism" bandwagon. The incident of December 13, the so called terrorist attack on the Indian parliament, in which five armed intruders and nine security guards were killed, came as a blessing in disguise for the reactionary hawks in the Indian regime. The recent Bush doctrine suited them perfectly.

Whether this attack was sponsored by the regime in Pakistan or not will, perhaps, never been known. What is clear is that the fundamentalists in power in India seized this opportunity with great zeal. They argued that India should retaliate 'George-Bush-style' against groups with bases in the part of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan and in Pakistan itself. The reactionary Hindu fundamentalist Home Affairs Minister of India, L.K. Advani, was crying for blood. He conveniently ignored the fact that India is home to plenty of other insurgents (nationalists in the North East, Maoists in central and eastern India, and Naxalites etc.) who have the motive and possibly even the means to carry out such an attack. War hysteria was built up. Train and bus services between India and Pakistan have been closed down, the Indian Ambassador to Pakistan has been recalled, the Pakistani embassy staff member manhandled by the police in Delhi and other actions were taken to increase tension.

Before this operation the coalition lead by the BJP was in trouble. The opposition was up in arms, ironically over a proposed anti-terrorist law (POTO) it regarded as draconian. The embattled government had been further embarrassed by reports of corruption in defense spending; including the purchase of what looked like widely overpriced coffins for soldiers. The opposition was calling for the head of the defense minister George Fernandez (an "ex-socialist") who had just been reappointed after resigning earlier this year over an arms purchases scandal. The uproar paralyzed parliament for three days last week.

Following the example of Bush, the BJP elite thinks that a catastrophe can work wonders for the reputation of the government. But for how long? Hardly ever has a regime survived for very long by treading on the path of war and turmoil.

Now India and Pakistan are at each other's throats threatening retaliation and counter-retaliation. The two nuclear-armed neighbours are on the brink, as the danger of an outbreak of war looms large in what has been described as " the most dangerous place in the world".

Vajpayee, the Indian Prime Minister (who is also known as "the cunning fox" of Indian politics) joined the so-called hawks of the BJP led by L.K. Advani in holding Islamabad responsible for a "conspiracy to wipe out India's entire political leadership".

Vajpayee, who adjourned parliament permanently to underline the present "critical" situation, described the "terrorist" strike as an attack on the "very existence" and honour of the nation, and declared that "all (retaliatory) options are open".

For the Indian rulers what is at stake is not just "national honour", but their own hard core electoral politics where they need to hold on to their power base intact so as to be able to continue to loot and plunder. Vajpayee's BJP, which leads a fractious rickety 26-party coalition in New Delhi, will be contesting legislative elections in Utter Pradesh and East Punjab before the spring.

Utter Pradesh, currently ruled by another BJP led coalition is a key state - India's most populous state - where, according to all opinion polls, the BJP faces a rout. Many BJP leaders admit that the party's defeat in Utter Pradesh could lead to an unraveling of the national coalition. The collapse of the regime at the center could result in a severe political crisis and the loss of the sources of corruption and looted fortunes for those in power.

A 'tough macho' stand against Pakistan and "terrorism" gives the BJP some electoral hope. The Indian media has gone berserk and is crying for blood. All wings of the state and the ruling class have whipped up an intense wave of war hysteria and jingoism. But in spite of the insanity and howling of the BJP regime, the more serious sections of the state and the ruling class are skeptical about the outcome of the option of war.

Even India's armed forces are reported to have cautioned against launching an attack on "Azad Kashmir" (Pakistani held Kashmir). They believe that most of what the Indian government calls training camps are "no more than drill squares and firing ranges". Strikes against them would have little impact, they argue.

Attacking them risks a military conflict that could last for weeks - with a frightful potential for escalation to the nuclear level. Any conventional India-Pakistan conflict carries such potential. Missile flight time between their cities is just three to eight minutes. A nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India would have devastating consequences for all of South Asia and indeed the world. A scientific projection has suggested that even a first generation nuclear bomb dropped over a city like Karachi or Mumbai could result in 800,000 to two million immediate deaths. On top of that there would be a radioactive cloud that would spread over the whole region and spell disaster also for the other countries bordering the subcontinent. And Pakistan and India are estimated to have 70 and 150 nuclear bombs each.

However, the main cause of this tension and war hysteria is the intense socio-economic crisis that has been aggravated by the impact of the recent recession in the world economy. The Indian and Pakistani ruling classes are trying to use this chauvinism, war, or threat of war, acts of terrorism and other calamities to further subdue the working classes already suffering from the crushing exploitation under capitalism and imperialist domination. The workers in India have been subjected to some of the harshest attacks in the recent period. There have been massive redundancies, cuts and a spate of economic measures dictated by the IMF and imperialist institutions while military spending has rocketed. The deepening crisis of Indian capitalism further compels the ruling state to intensify its attacks on the working class. Ironically the traditional left leaders and intellectuals have been playing along with the tune of the ruling elite in the name of "nationalism" and "democracy".

Poverty has doubled in the last decades. Some of the most monstrous practices are rampant in many parts of India. According to a recent report in Andhra Pradesh alone, two thousand baby girls were sold through the local NGOs to various adoption agencies. The parents of these unfortunate babies received just Rs.500 ($12) for each baby and they were sold to mostly American parents for US$ 14,000.

Infanticide, black magic, religious bigotry, wife burning, casteism and other ugly prejudices and practices of the past have re-emerged in society. There are more Hindu fundamentalist schools [Ashrams] run by the RSS, Jansang and other Hindu reactionary groups in India than there are Islamic Madrassas (schools) in Pakistan.

This reflects the stagnation and deep organic crisis of a system that has failed to develop society. Economic growth has declined. The local industry of the Indian bourgeoisie is fast turning into ruins as factory after factory faces closure. The situation in the agrarian sector is even worse. Such is the pathetic condition of the "land reforms" that those peasants who were allotted land through these reforms rent them to contractors and work on those plots of lands as labourers in utter drudgery.

The religious, communal, ethnic, nationalist and regional conflicts are shaking the foundations of the state. War or no war the reactionary BJP led coalition is bound to fall sooner rather than later. This will open up a Pandora's box in the vacuum of Indian politics where most bourgeois parties have wavered in the face of the impending crisis in the economy and society.

The condition of Pakistan is pathetic. It has spent 20 years propping up Taliban and other fundamentalist groups inside Afghanistan, and now this has failed miserably. This has made its Western frontier with Afghanistan vulnerable. The Northern Alliance ministers are refusing to bury the hatchet over past conflicts with Pakistan. They are refusing to forego and forgive the role the ISI played in arming the Taliban to defeat these Northern Alliance Warlords. However there is more to it than that. Ethnic conflicts will explode in Afghanistan as the artificial regime cobbled together by the imperialists, collapses, and these will spill over into Pakistan. This can fuel nationalistic and sectarian clashes, which can wreak havoc for the already fragile Pakistani State.

The resurgence of Pashtoon nationalism can create a bloody disaster for this violence and crisis stricken society. The hesitant repression of the fundamentalists by the regime also shows its limitations and capability. The assassination of the brother of Pakistan's Interior minister Moin Haider shows that fundamentalist terror is far from over.

The threat of war in Kashmir and along the Eastern border with India has baffled Pakistan's military elite and its ruling classes. As reports about the largest peacetime movement of the Indian troops since the Brass tacks military exercise in 1987 reached Islamabad the generals were forced to react. There first response was to contact the Americans.

According to a senior military official "President Musharraf specially called Secretary Powell to inform him that any military action from India would be taken by Pakistan as an act of war". Musharraf must have gathered a lot of courage to give Powell that mute threat, considering his extremely weak diplomatic, political and military position. But then he immediately toned down his position and changed it to a more acceptable one for Powell. The military official narrates the conversation on December 19 as follows: "We told the Americans that Pakistan would act against Pakistani groups or individuals if the FBI independently confirmed that Pakistanis were involved in the terrorist action at the Indian parliamentÉ In managing the crisis the (U.S.) state department also lost some sleep over usÉ Without the US intervention the situation could have turned very nasty."

The senior military official further explained the stressful condition prevailing that night amongst Pakistan's military top brass: "For the first time ever we faced a serious security situation simultaneously on both our Eastern and Western bordersÉ it was nothing short of a nightmare." It was only after this telephonic conference that Musharraf decided to go ahead with his four-day official visit to China.

However, in spite of American assurances, the Indian troop build-up on the border has continued unabated. The Americans have been known to betray their Pakistani stooges more than once in the past. They could do that again if they deem it necessary. Yet such is the pathetic state of the Pakistani ruling class that they have no option but to rely upon the Americans.

The Pakistani military build-up has been intensified and the cross border exchange of fire is in full swing. Again, the first causality in this war has been the truth, even before the real war has started. There are accusations and counter-accusations about who started the assault and who fired the first shot and who is responding in 'defence'. But whatever the outcome of this conflict will be, Pakistani society is bound to be its victim. The socio-economic conditions are already in an adverse state.

Pakistan's economy is in a mess. Poverty has doubled in the last decade. The growth rate has fallen from 5% to about 2.4% this year. Pakistan has been the main victim of the war against Afghanistan, both economically and politically. The Americans have given them a paltry $673 million, but at the same time, due to the war Pakistan has suffered losses of $1.4 billion in export earnings. Now Pakistan's total external debt is almost 600% of its total budgetary revenues and 244% of exports. The total public debt is 105% of GDP. All these macro indicators suggest that Pakistan's debt situation is even worse than those of the highly indebted poor countries. Crime, violence, corruption, ignorance, disease and misery stalk the land. The Musharraf dictatorship has been totally subservient to imperialism not just in warfare but also in economics. They have carried out the IMF and World Bank recipes with great zeal and speed. This has meant a further massive increase in unemployment and greater misery for the toiling masses of Pakistan.

The prospects of Pakistan experiencing economic revival through participating in Afghanistan's "reconstruction" are nothing but a utopian pipe dream. The Americans are planning to abandon Afghanistan once again. As the television crews depart and the U.S. troops leave for home, its turmoil, conflagration and bloodshed will come back to haunt Pakistan once again - this time with an even greater ferocity.

The Indians are making life for Musharraf more and more miserable. If Musharraf takes punitive action against Lashkar-a-Tayyaba and Jaish-a-Mohammed (two Islamic fundamentalist organisations the regime has already banned and who have been blamed by India for the December 13 attack) it will be considered as capitulation to Indian pressure. This will weaken his position on the home front. If he does not take firmer action against these fundamentalist outfits then the big boss in Washington will be cross.

One of the methods that the regime was pursuing to undermine the fundamentalists was to use anti-Indian rhetoric. Now both these hostile reactionary forces are playing upon each other and Musharraf gets a battering in this rhetorical warfare.

Although the top brass of the army is terrified of the prospect of war with India, it has no option but to respond. If Musharraf makes further concessions under pressure from India he could face a revolt from within the army. The toll on the Pakistani military high command of the Afghan adventure together with abrupt policy changes has already been heavy. It has been badly shaken and the cracks in the elite are evident.

The problem with the rulers is that one cannot whip up war hysteria and than shy away from the war. This scenario is faced by the regimes on both side of the border. Both are weak and wavering. They blow the trumpets of war and are then reluctant to fight. Such a situation cannot be maintained for a very long time. Their own rhetoric can push them over the precipice. War can mean endless devastation, and not just for the subcontinent. Its impact will go far beyond the subcontinent. A nuclear holocaust cannot be totally ruled out. Such is the impasse where the crisis of capitalism has brought these unfortunate societies.

As the firing of the machine guns and mortars goes on, as troop movements intensify, as fighter aircraft are moved to forward bases, as innocent people flee from border towns & villages, as blackouts are being practised, fear and uncertainty is gripping the masses of the whole region. If this madness prevails and the volatile situation erupts into a war then this would be a much more ferocious and bloody affair than in the past. The previous Indo-Pak wars would look like tea parties.

The missiles and other weapons of mass destruction would devastate whole cities (even if this war remains within the confines of the so-called conventional arsenal). If the Indians occupy the rest of Kashmir, they will be in for even greater resistance by an even larger Kashmiri population. Pakistan's existence would be threatened and its break up would inevitably lead to the bloody fragmentation of India.

In the event of a war it won't be a walkover for India. Pakistan is neither Afghanistan nor Palestine. Although the military balance of forces is not evenly poised Pakistan's resistance would be quite formidable with its relatively significant military arsenal: half a million armed personnel, 350 functional fighter aircraft and a large armoured corps. The possession of nuclear weapons by Pakistan further dents India's option of a military solution.

That is also the reason that the Americans are trying to restrain India from an all out war. The Indian defense minister George Fernandez in his speeches has complained to the Americans and the British for not giving India the green light to launch an attack against 'terrorism' in Pakistan. He accused the West oh having double standards.

Due to the pressures from imperialism and for other reasons also, this clash could be averted. But those factors which have brought the two countries to the verge of another war would remain very much there. The so-called peace would be shattered in an even shorter span of time. This means that the ruling classes of the subcontinent can neither afford a war, nor can they maintain peace. This vicious cycle of bloody wars and an elusive peace will go on and on until it will drench these societies in blood and drive them into barbarism and ruin. This situation is the direct result of the crisis of capitalism and imperialist exploitation.

The Indian subcontinent was partitioned in August 1947. Because the intensity of the movement of the workers, sailors, soldiers and the peasant masses was not just threatening the British Raj but it could have gone further and overthrown the rule of capital. Hence, British imperialism in connivance with the Hindu and Muslim bourgeois political leaders committed this heinous crime of partition. The blunders of the CPI (Communist Party of India) leadership led to its losing the historical opportunity of giving a lead when the movement of national liberation could have easily been transformed into a socialist revolution on the Indian subcontinent.

Fifty-four years on, nothing has been resolved. Under this exploitative system nothing can be resolved. After more than half a century of so-called independence under the yoke of imperialism, the living standards of hundreds of millions of people of the subcontinent have fallen. Misery, disease and ignorance have intensified. The bourgeoisie of India and Pakistan have proved to be historical failures. They have not solved a single problem nor accomplished a single task of the National Democratic Revolution. Their late arrival onto the arena of history deprived them of this capability.

This situation cannot go for long. The workers and oppressed of India and Pakistan have risen in mass movements time and again. In the aftermath of the 1965 war the masses of Pakistan rose up into what became a gigantic revolutionary movement with a socialist perspective. They overthrew the brutal military dictatorship of Ayub Khan and could have gone all the way had there been a revolutionary leadership. After the 1971 war there was a glorious movement of the Indian proletariat that overthrew the vicious bourgeois regime of the 'conqueror' of Bengal and the heroine of the 1971 war, Indira Gandhi.

The masses will rise again. They will enter the path of the class struggle and fight the class war to the finish. The overthrow of capitalism - the cause of all wars, misery, poverty, disease, agony and destitution - can only be accomplished through a Socialist Revolution. The working masses of the subcontinent, during this short historical period, have proved more than once their ability and valour to carry out this historical task. A Socialist Revolution in Pakistan or India will inevitably cross over these artificial borders and create a Socialist Federation of the subcontinent. This is the only path for undoing the partition, uniting the peoples and moving towards a World Socialist Federation for the ultimate emancipation of all humankind.

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